Europe in crisis. Is the end of the European Union a likely scenario?
Panel discussion
The quest for the perfect economic system
Public saving or spending?
How can public funds generate growth?Panel discussion
Last year’s session about what reforms does the Euro zone need has suggested that Structural reform is an essential ingredient to achieve sustainable and balanced growth. Now we see that empirical evidence shows that crises or very weak activity tend to boost structural reform activity, but it also shows that large budget deficits discourage structural reform, possibly because there is no fiscal space to buy off the losers from reform. At any rate, many European countries face both weak activity and sizeable budget problems.
Research and innovation are at the top of the EU's agenda for growth and jobs. Member countries have been encouraged to invest 3% of their GDP in R&D by 2020 (1% public funding, 2% private-sector investment) – which is estimated to create 3.7 million jobs and increase annual GDP by nearly €800 billion.
Europe is divided in this matter and a the result of these policies can be seen in the youth employment rates which is still declining even if some structural reforms took place. Recent figures from OECD Countries show that not just the youth unemployment rates are increasing but also the rate of those who are inactive (not working and not looking for a job) is boosting.
Where can a country find the resources needed to invest in its youth? Saving or spending? Saving means to make cuts, create imbalances, lay-off the inefficiency of the system to maximize utility. Spending raises inflation, creates short term jobs with uncertainties about sustainability of this policy and it’s long term benefits.
What is the perfect mix between saving and spending, that can be applied in Europe to find our way out of the crisis?
Wyzwania dla młodego pokolenia w polityce europejskiej
Gość specjalny:
Sławomir Nowak
Minister Transportu RP
How to be a good leader in contemporary businesses and society?
Panel discussion
Wyzwania dla młodego pokolenia w polityce europejskiej
Panel dyskusyjny
Zwijanie demokracji w Europie Wschodniej – czy społeczeństwo obywatelskie może dokonać jeszcze pozytywnej zmiany?
Panel dyskusyjny
This year is crucial for the development of democracy in Eastern Europe. The castling of Vladimir Putin with Dmitry Medvedev cements the authoritarian rule of Russia. This was a move accompanied, however, by unusually harsh protests in the society. The October parliamentary elections already heat up the political climate in Ukraine. Having the Tymoshenko case in mind - will they be free and fair? And what is the perspective for Belarus - dependent on Russian credits and isolated from Europe?
Russia, Ukraine and Belarus together have a population of almost 200 million people. The three countries constitute considerable trading partners for the EU countries. Their importance in energy supply for the European Union does not even need to be stressed just as the huge share of the energy sector in the economies of Russia (~ 20 % ), Belarus (9 %) and Ukraine (7,5 %).
Their geographical position and strong cultural ties with the West of Europe make the three countries potential partners or the EU in the global rat race for influence and economical advantages. Economic cooperation to the benefit of all parts of society works best under market economy conditions. But the market needs democratic institutions and the rule of law to blossom.
2012 is a crucial year for the development of democracy in all three mentioned countries. The performance of Belarus and Ukraine in the renowned Freedom House democracy rating weakened, Russia’s position did not improve.
This year is crucial for the development of democracy in Eastern Europe. The castling of Vladimir Putin with Dmitry Medvedev cements the authoritarian rule of Russia. This was a move accompanied, however, by unusually harsh protests in the society. The October parliamentary elections already heat up the political climate in Ukraine. Having the Tymoshenko case in mind - will they be free and fair? And what is the perspective for Belarus - dependent on Russian credits and isolated from Europe?
Russia, Ukraine and Belarus together have a population of almost 200 million people. The three countries constitute considerable trading partners for the EU countries. Their importance in energy supply for the European Union does not even need to be stressed just as the huge share of the energy sector in the economies of Russia (~ 20 % ), Belarus (9 %) and Ukraine (7,5 %).
Their geographical position and strong cultural ties with the West of Europe make the three countries potential partners or the EU in the global rat race for influence and economical advantages. Economic cooperation to the benefit of all parts of society works best under market economy conditions. But the market needs democratic institutions and the rule of law to blossom.
2012 is a crucial year for the development of democracy in all three mentioned countries. The performance of Belarus and Ukraine in the renowned Freedom House democracy rating weakened, Russia’s position did not improve.
The economic crisis struck Belarus state-sponsored economy especially hard. Minsk chose to sell parts of their key industries to Moscow for Russian credits. Observers don’t expect the September 2012 parliamentary elections to change the countries political sphere considerably.
Ukraine saw a further confirmation of authoritarian tendencies with the mistreatment of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko being only the top of the ice-berg. The upcoming parliamentary elections (October 2012) already head up the political climate in the country. Will they be free and fair?
In Russia, the castling of now-president Vladimir Putin with his successor in the office, Dmitry Medvedev, seems to cement the authoritarian rule of the country. One has to acknowledge, however, that this unique move was accompanied by unusually harsh protests in society.
It will be of key importance for all discussed countries here, if the Russian opposition, presently intimidated and oppressed by the regime, will be strong enough to channel protest for true change. If it is true what Lidia Shevtsova of Carnegie Moscow states, today’s Russia might transform quicker than the world is prepared for. While sociologist declare the rise of the Russian middle class, the authorities answered social discontent of the last months with a wave of oppression culminating in the “Pussy Riot” case.
The European Union and its member states - each of them in its own policies - try to influence the democratic development and market economy tendencies in all three former Soviet countries. Official relations with Russia are still based on the “Partnership and Cooperation Agreement” terminated in 2007. The already negotiated Association Agreement with Ukraine has not been ratified by the member states due to the Timoshenko case. In the case of Belarus, the EU faces a true deadlock. The country officially is participating in the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) an the Eastern Partnership, but practical progress towards democracy and human rights is scarce on all levels.7
The Union is still holding sanctions against numerous representatives of the official Belarussian apparatus. Lukashenko recently answered with restrictions against the diplomatic representations of Poland and Sweden.
Bilateral relations of all the member states towards Russia, Ukraine and Belarus differ a lot on the given second country. Broadly speaking, they oscillate from a lower level of engagement (Southern European countries) through tangible economic interests (Germany) to severe security and stability considerations (Poland, Baltic countries).
Given the premise that collective and individual well-being and sustainable economic growth is best possible in a democratic environment, there seem to be little alternative for Russia, Ukraine and Belarus not to undertake reforms towards more open societies in the long run.
Given this outset, we will try to answer the following questions in the panel:
Malte Koppe
He is working as junior officer at the German-Polish Youth Office (DPJW/PNWM), an international organization established by the German and Polish government aiming at fostering cooperation among young people from Germany and Poland. His main interests apart from youth exchange and the German-Polish relationship are international cooperation in the civil society and contemporary developments in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Malte graduaded (Political Science) from the universities of Münster (Germany) and Lublin (Poland). His former post include the Institute for Cultural Diplomacy (Berlin) and the Nowy Staw Foundation (Lublin). For 2012, Malte has been elected as the Council's coordinator. He speaks German (native), Polish, English and Russian. He is based in Warsaw.
